The Next Four Years: What Now for Malaysia?

IDEAS Public Forum – 28th June 2019 – Connexion, 7 Jalan Kerinchi, Bangsar South, Kuala Lumpur

Mr Ali Salman, CEO of IDEAS

YB Dato’ Sri Hajah Nancy Shukri, MP for Batang Sadong

Ms Cynthia Gabriel, Executive Center, C4

Mr Laurence Todd, Director of Research, IDEAS

Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen

Selamat pagi, Good Morning and Salam Malaysia Baru

Firstly, I want to thank IDEAS for giving me the honour of saying a few words at this public forum. IDEAS, from its establishment until now, has always encouraged open and constructive dialogue. Under Malaysia Baru, the room for constructive dialogue has expanded significantly and I look forward to more inputs to the new government from IDEAS and also possible areas of cooperation.

Secondly, allow me to extend my congratulations to Laurence and his team for their hard work in the preparation of the 2nd Projek Pantau Report Card including Faiz Zaidi and Aira Azhari, the lead researchers and not forgetting the research interns, Afifa Sahirin and Aiman Wan Alias. In the past, most people in Malaysia, including researchers, would not pay much attention to the manifesto promises of the winning coalition AFTER the general election, much less come up with a report to track the progress of the manifesto. This time, after GE14, I’m glad that IDEAS is committed to systematically track Pakatan Harapan’s GE14 manifesto on the bi-annual basis. As one of the authors of the PH Manifesto, I am glad that at least someone is paying attention. But at the same time, this also places more pressure on PH to deliver on our promises. This is one of the most tangible signs of how Malaysia has changed after GE14 – the fact that promises actually mean something and people expect them to be delivered.

Slightly over a year after GE14, this public forum is asking a very relevant question – What is the plan for Malaysia for the next four years? There are three areas of focus which the Pakatan Harapan should and will focus on to show that we can deliver our promises (or at least a majority of them) in the next 4 years. They are: (1) Continue to systematically deliver on PH’s GE14 Manifesto Promises (2) Identify and Implement new strategies to propel economic growth and create well-paying jobs and (3) Ensure the well-being of the B40.

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国内经济拥有弹性去面对未来的经济挑战

国际贸工部副部长王建民博士于2019年6月20日媒体文告

佐摩博士(Dr. KS Jomo )于2019年6月17日(星期一)在2019年大马经济大会所发表的言论得到广泛的报道,尤其是他提及的“现在和将来会是非常艰难的时刻,因为外在环景因素非常恶劣,可以以’每况愈下’来形容。他也表示“这些很多问题都不在马来西亚政府的控制之内。”

我赞同 Dr Jomo的看法,外在经济因素的挑战将会持续,尤其是在最近美中经贸关系发展不正面的情况下。我也认同有这些挑战外在的因素发生的原因是不在马来西亚政府的控制范围内的。

当美中贸易战还局限于货物关税之时,大马至少还可以在短期内从分散投资和贸易中获益。这可以缓冲贸易战带来的长期负面影响,例如,野村证券 (NOMURA) 预测大马在美中贸易战中将会是第四大获益的国家。

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Kita mempunyai daya tahan dalaman untuk menghadapi cabaran ekonomi yang mendatang

Kenyataan Media oleh Dr. Ong Kian Ming, Timbalan Menteri Perdagangan Antarabangsa dan Industri (MITI) pada 20hb Jun, 2019.

Kenyataan  Dr. KS Jomo kepada pemberita semasa Konvensyen Ekonomi Malaysia 2019 pada Isnin, 17hb Jun, 2019 telah mendapat laporan yang meluas di dada akhbar. Terutamanya apabila dia menyebut bahawa “Ini akan menjadi masa yang sangat sukar kerana keadaan luaran sangat buruk dan semakin merosot pada hampir setiap hari “. Dia juga menambah bahawa “banyak masalah ini berada di luar kawalan Kerajaan Malaysia “[1]

Saya bersetuju dengan pandangan Dr. Jomo bahawa keadaan ekonomi luaran akan terus menjadi sangat mencabar, terutamanya di dalam perkembangan terbaru hubungan ekonomi AS-China. Saya juga bersetuju bahawa banyak cabaran ini disebabkan oleh faktor di luar kawalan kerajaan Malaysia.

Apabila perang perdagangan AS-China terhad kepada skop tarif barangan dan perkhidmatan, Malaysia boleh sekurang-kurangnya mendapat manfaat daripada beberapa lencongan perdagangan dan pelaburan yang berjangka pendek. Ini dapat mengurangkan kesan negatif jangka panjang akibat perang perdagangan. Sebagai contoh, NOMURA telah menganggarkan bahawa Malaysia akan menjadi penerima manfaat ke-4 terbesar daripada perang perdagangan AS-China hasil daripada lencongan perdagangan.[2]

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