GE2013 results shows that it was a Malaysian Tsunami and not a Chinese Tsunami that increased Pakatan’s popular vote and number of parliament and state seats

Media Statement by Dr. Ong Kian Ming, DAP Election Strategist, in Kuala Lumpur on the 10th of May, 2013

1. Pakatan’s popular vote in the whole of Malaysia increased from 47.6% in 2008 to 50.9% in 2013, representing a 3.2% increase in Pakatan’s support. BN’s popular vote decreased from 51.4% in 2008 to 47.4% in 2013, a 4.0% decrease.

2013 2008 Increase / Decrease
BN 47.4% 51.4% -4.0%
Pakatan 50.9% 47.6% 3.2%

Calculations were made using only valid votes at the parliament level.

2. Pakatan increased its share of parliament seats from 37% in 2008 to 40% in 2013 by winning at extra 7 parliament seats.

2013 Parliament 2008 Parliament Increase / Decrease
PKR 30 31 -1
PAS 21 23 -2
DAP 38 28 +10
TOTAL 89 82 +7

3. Pakatan won 32 more state seats in 2013. All three Pakatan parties won more state seats in 2013. Pakatan won 45% of total state seats in 2013 compared to 39% in 2008, a 6% increased.

2013 State 2008 State Increase / Decrease
PAS 85 83 +2
PKR 49 41 +8
DAP 95 73 +22
TOTAL 229 197 +32

4. Pakatan’s support increased in 11 out of 13 states and in the Federal Territories including in the Malay majority states of Perlis, Terengganu and Pahang where the % of Malay voters is 70% and higher.

NEGERI BN%2013 PR%2013 BN%2008 PR%2008 BN% (Increase / Decrease) PR% (Increase / Decrease)
PERLIS

55.4%

44.3%

60.1%

39.9%

-4.8%

4.4%

KEDAH

50.6%

48.5%

46.8%

53.2%

3.8%

-4.7%

KELANTAN

43.0%

53.7%

44.7%

55.0%

-1.8%

-1.3%

TERENGGANU

51.4%

48.5%

55.1%

44.7%

-3.7%

3.7%

PULAU PINANG

31.6%

67.8%

36.9%

63.0%

-5.3%

4.8%

PERAK

44.9%

54.7%

46.5%

53.3%

-1.6%

1.4%

PAHANG

55.2%

44.4%

59.5%

40.5%

-4.3%

3.8%

SELANGOR

39.0%

59.4%

44.3%

55.4%

-5.3%

4.0%

W.P. KL & PUTRAJAYA

35.3%

63.9%

38.3%

61.6%

-3.1%

2.4%

NEGERI SEMBILAN

51.0%

47.3%

54.7%

45.1%

-3.7%

2.2%

MELAKA

53.8%

46.2%

57.4%

42.6%

-3.6%

3.6%

JOHOR

54.9%

45.0%

65.3%

34.7%

-10.3%

10.3%

SABAH

55.0%

35.9%

61.6%

32.5%

-6.6%

3.4%

SARAWAK

58.9%

37.3%

64.2%

28.3%

-5.3%

8.9%

TOTAL MSIA

47.4%

50.9%

51.4%

47.6%

-4.0%

3.2%

Notes: Calculations made based on valid votes only, Sabah includes Labuan, Change in BN may not equal Change in PR for some states because of the presence of independent and non-BN & non-PR candidates

5. There are 23 Malay majority (Malay% > 50%) parliamentary seats where PR increased its support by 5% or more from 2008 to 2013. This increase in support could not have been possible if there wasn’t increased support from the Malay voters who form the majority of voters. For example, in P2 Kangar which is a 80.7% Malay seat, PR increased its support by 16.1%. Similarly, in P41 Kepala Batas, which is a 76% Malay seat, PR increased its support by 11.8%, could not have happened without increased support from the Malay voters. The reason why not much attention has been paid to these seats is because although PR made significant gains in these seats, they did not win these seats.

NEGERI PARLIAMENT CODE PARLIAMENT NAME PR%2013 PR%2008 ChangePR% MALAY%
PERLIS P002 KANGAR

45.3%

29.2%

16.1%

80.7%

JOHOR P141 SEKIJANG

45.9%

30.4%

15.6%

55.5%

JOHOR P160 JOHOR BAHRU

43.5%

28.5%

15.0%

50.8%

JOHOR P149 SRI GADING

42.6%

30.1%

12.6%

62.6%

NEGERI SEMBILAN P126 JELEBU

40.4%

28.4%

12.1%

63.1%

PULAU PINANG P041 KEPALA BATAS

45.5%

33.6%

11.8%

76.3%

SELANGOR P093 SUNGAI BESAR

49.5%

39.8%

9.7%

65.6%

JOHOR P153 SEMBRONG

34.8%

25.5%

9.3%

57.7%

W.P. KUALA LUMPUR P118 SETIAWANGSA

48.7%

39.7%

9.0%

56.1%

NEGERI SEMBILAN P127 JEMPOL

42.0%

33.0%

9.0%

60.1%

JOHOR P144 LEDANG

48.3%

39.8%

8.5%

52.8%

JOHOR P151 SIMPANG RENGGAM

41.6%

33.1%

8.5%

56.4%

NEGERI SEMBILAN P133 TAMPIN

38.3%

30.3%

7.9%

61.3%

PERAK P055 LENGGONG

42.5%

35.0%

7.6%

81.8%

JOHOR P164 PONTIAN

33.6%

26.4%

7.2%

68.7%

JOHOR P146 MUAR

47.9%

40.8%

7.2%

62.1%

W.P. KUALA LUMPUR P125 PUTRAJAYA

30.7%

24.2%

6.4%

94.1%

JOHOR P147 PARIT SULONG

37.9%

31.5%

6.4%

72.2%

JOHOR P143 PAGOH

33.8%

27.9%

5.9%

64.0%

JOHOR P155 TENGGARA

24.9%

19.7%

5.2%

72.0%

JOHOR P154 MERSING

28.5%

23.3%

5.2%

78.4%

PAHANG P084 PAYA BESAR

40.0%

35.0%

5.1%

81.2%

PAHANG P079 LIPIS

42.9%

37.9%

5.0%

75.9%

6. There are 8 Malay majority (>50% Malay) state seats in Selangor where Pakatan’s support increased by more than 5%. This includes 4 state seats which were won by PAS which it did not win in 2008 – namely Tanjong Sepat, Taman Templer, Dusun Tua and Paya Jeras. PAS could not win these seats merely based on an increase in Chinese support. Malay support must also have increased in these Malay majority seats.

NEGERI

PARLIAMENT CODE

PARLIAMENT NAME

STATE CODE

STATE NAME

PR%2013 PR%2008 ChangeinPR%13to08 MALAY%

SELANGOR

P093

SUNGAI BESAR

N03

SUNGAI PANJANG

45.3%

32.4%

12.9%

81.6%

SELANGOR

P100

PANDAN

N21

CHEMPAKA

63.1%

52.2%

10.9%

53.2%

SELANGOR

P113

SEPANG

N54

TANJONG SEPAT

51.4%

41.7%

9.8%

52.0%

SELANGOR

P097

SELAYANG

N15

TAMAN TEMPLER

58.2%

48.9%

9.3%

51.4%

SELANGOR

P101

HULU LANGAT

N23

DUSUN TUA

55.1%

46.1%

9.0%

53.2%

SELANGOR

P107

SUBANG

N38

PAYA JARAS

57.2%

48.6%

8.7%

56.6%

SELANGOR

P099

AMPANG

N20

LEMBAH JAYA

60.5%

54.0%

6.5%

54.0%

SELANGOR

P094

HULU SELANGOR

N05

HULU BERNAM

41.5%

35.7%

5.8%

67.4%

7. Increase Malay support in P102 Serdang for DAP / Pakatan, especially among younger Malays. In the P102.Serdang, using saluran or polling stream data, the Malay support for DAP / Pakatan increased from 36% in 2008 to 43% in 2013. In the polling stations in the 66% Malay majority of N26 Bangi, the majority for DAP / Pakatan increased from 1094 in 2008 to 5825 in 2013. There is also encouraging evidence that younger Malay voters are supporting DAP / Pakatan at higher rates compared to older Malay voters. The table below shows the difference between the support for the DAP in the oldest saluran (Saluran 1) versus the youngest saluran (Saluran 4, 5 or 6) in the Malay majority polling stations in N26 Bangi. The support for the DAP / Pakatan is clearly and significantly higher among younger Malay voters compared to the older Malay voters.

Polling Station Malay% Oldest Saluran(DAP Support) Youngest Saluran(DAP Support) Difference (Youngest – Oldest)
Sungai Ramal Dalam 97% 28% 51% +23%
Sungai Ramal Luar 82% 31% 46% +15%
Seksyen 3 BBB 97% 45% 62% +17%
Seksyen 1 BBB 93% 51% 55% +4%
Seksyen 6 BBB 90% 41% 48% +7%
Seksyen 4 BBB 95% 48% 59% +11%
Seksyen 2 BBB 97% 57% 64% +7

8. BN experienced a fall in support of more than 10% from 2008 to 2013 in 8 of the Dayak majority / plurality parliament seats. But this was not sufficient for PR to win any of these seats although PR came closest in P205 Saratok (2081) and Baram (194). The failure to resolve some serious local problems e.g. land grabs and dam buildings will further erode BN’s support in these areas in the future.

NEGERI

PARLIAMENT CODE

PARLIAMENT NAME

BN%2013 BN%2008 ChangeinBN% Malay / Melanau% Dayak%

SARAWAK

P205

SARATOK

53.20%

76.80%

-23.60%

43.70%

49.30%

SARAWAK

P222

LAWAS

71.50%

92.10%

-20.60%

42.80%

47.10%

SARAWAK

P209

JULAU

59.30%

78.90%

-19.60%

12.20%

82.80%

SARAWAK

P192

MAS GADING

41.10%

58.60%

-17.60%

12.70%

67.80%

SARAWAK

P220

BARAM

49.50%

66.90%

-17.40%

20.60%

69.90%

SARAWAK

P217

BINTULU

58.20%

73.20%

-15.00%

28.50%

43.50%

SARAWAK

P199

SERIAN

74.30%

87.00%

-12.60%

14.50%

74.60%

SARAWAK

P204

BETONG

77.10%

87.30%

-10.10%

50.00%

42.70%

9. BN experienced a fall of more than 10% in 7 Sabah Bumiputera seats. However, PR only managed to win one of these seats (P174 Penampang). PR came closest in Beaufort, losing by 673 votes. The BN won 4 parliament seats – P168 Kota Marudu, P180 Keningau, P181 Tenom and P182 Pensiangan – with less than 50% of the vote. Multiple corner fights in these as well as other seats involving STAR and SAPP affected the chances for PR to win more parliament as well as state seats.

NEGERI PARLIAMENT CODE PARLIAMENT NAME BN%2013 BN%2008 ChangeinBN% MUSLIM BUMIPUTERA% NON-MUSLIM BUMIPUTERA%
W.P. LABUAN P166 LABUAN

66.3%

77.0%

-10.8%

60.2%

14.0%

SABAH P171 SEPANGGAR

54.1%

64.9%

-10.8%

51.6%

26.1%

SABAH P174 PENAMPANG

34.3%

54.0%

-19.7%

15.9%

50.1%

SABAH P177 BEAUFORT

50.5%

79.3%

-28.7%

61.0%

30.3%

SABAH P179 RANAU

50.2%

65.4%

-15.2%

10.7%

86.9%

SABAH P180 KENINGAU

44.5%

57.3%

-12.8%

18.5%

70.4%

SABAH P181 TENOM

48.1%

62.9%

-14.7%

20.9%

66.0%

At the state level, PR managed to win 11 seats, 6 of which were in non-Chinese majority / plurality areas. If multiple corner fights can be avoided in the future, PR can build on its current representation of 3 MPs and 11 ADUNs to make further inroads into Sabah.

10. BN has to defend 46 marginal seats compared to 30 for PR in the next election.

No of Marginal Seats (BN or PR win by 55% of vote or less)

Total BN PR
Pmsia

38

26

Sabah

4

1

Sarawak

4

3

Total

46

30

11. It cannot be denied that the BN is on the defensive even though PR did not manage to win a majority of seats. With an increased number of state seats, especially in the frontline states of Johor, Sabah and Sarawak and with a significant decrease in the level of BN support in these states, the BN cannot consider these states as fixed deposits any longer. Also, with the increase in the number and percentage of younger voters who are less influenced by mainstream media and more willing to vote across racial lines in support of Pakatan, it is increasingly clear that the BN will likely lose power in GE14. What may save the BN is a grossly skewed and unfair delimitation exercise which is scheduled to start sometime this year and be completed before GE14.

Dr. Ong Kian Ming
DAP Election Strategist
P102 Serdang