The Delimitation Exercise in Selangor is still unfair and unconstitutional

Media Statement by Dr. Ong Kian Ming, Member of Parliament for Serdang and Assistant National Director for Political Education, on the 16th of January 2018

The Delimitation Exercise in Selangor is still unfair and unconstitutional

Yesterday, on the 15th of January 2018, the Election Commission (EC) issued the 2nd Notice (or Syor 2) for the Delimitation Exercise for the state of Selangor.[1] The delimitation exercise for all the other states in Peninsular Malaysia have been completed with the exception of Selangor. With the publication of the 2nd notice and the completion of the 2nd public hearing, the EC can then pass the delimitation exercise for Peninsular Malaysia to the Prime Minister who is expected to table this and also the Sabah delimitation exercise in the upcoming March to April 2018 parliament sitting.

At first glance, Syor 2 seems to return the boundaries of the seats in Selangor back to the boundaries which were used in the 2013 general election, with the exception of 5 parliament seats and name changes to one parliament and four state seats. But by returning to the GE13 status quo, the EC shows that it has failed to achieve one of the key objectives of any delimitation exercise, which is to reduce the disparity between the number of voters in the parliament and state seats.

For example, the parliament seat of Kapar (146,317 voters) still has nearly 4 times as many voters as the parliament seat of Sabak Bernam (37,126) under Syor 2. (See Figure 1 below)

Figure 1: No of voters by Parliament Seat in Selangor according to Syor 2

It would be hard for an independent and impartial EC to argue for a ‘rural-weightage’ of nearly 4 to 1 for a developed state like Selangor where even areas like Sabak Bernam and Tanjong Karang are well connected by roads and highways.

At the same time, the EC has failed to reduce the disparity in the number of voters between state seats, even for those located in the same area. For example, the number of voters in Seri Serdang and Kinrara in Syor 2 are 74,563 and 34,910 respectively even though both of these state seats are in the urban seat of P103 Puchong and are under the jurisdiction of the Subang Jaya Municipal Council (MPSJ) (See Figure 2 below). The fact that Seri Serdang has more than twice the number of voters in Kinrara even though they are both urban seats is a gross violation of Section 2(c) of the 13th Schedule of the Federal Constitution.

Figure 2: No of Voters in the two state seats in P103 Puchong in Syor 2

Another example can be found in the parliament seat of P106 PJ Utara. The number of voters in the two state seats in PJ Utara are 53,440 (Damansara Utama) and 31,016 (Kampung Tunku) respectively even though both of these state seats are urban seats under the Petaling Jaya municipal council. (Figure 3 below)

Figure 3: No of Voters in the two state seats in P106 PJ Utara (Syor 2)

Similar discrepancies can be found in the state seats in P113 Sepang. The state seat of Dengkil (39,380 voters) has almost twice as many voters as Sungai Pelek (23,989) and Tanjong Sepat (22,026) even though all of these seats are located under the Sepang Municipal Council (See Figure 4 below)

Figure 4: No of voters in the three state seats in P113 Sepang (Syor 2)

For a state which has experienced such a rapid growth in the number of voters such as Selangor, what the EC should have done is to increase the number of state and parliament seats in order to reduce the discrepancy in the number of voters in the state and parliament seats in accordance to Section 2(C) of the Federal Constitution which states that the number of voters within each constituency in a State ought to be approximately equal with some measure of urban-rural weightage.

It is not the responsibility of the EC to ensure that the Selangor state will amend its state constitution to cater for the increase in the number of seats nor is it the responsibility of the EC to ensure that there is enough support in parliament to amend the constitution to increase the number of parliament seats. This responsibility lies solely in the hands of the Prime Minister. The Prime Minister must convince 2/3rds of MPs in parliament that the delimitation exercise is worthy of their support in order to amend the federal constitution and increase the number of parliament seats. Similarly, the Prime Minister must work with and obtain the agreement of the Selangor state to increase the number of state seats.

So even though Syor 2 does not exhibit the gross gerrymandering that was evident in Syor 1, the EC has very obviously failed in adhering to the Federal constitution in carrying out the delimitation exercise for Selangor.

[1] http://www.spr.gov.my/ms/pusat-media/berita/persempadanan-pameran-syor-kedua-urusan-kajian-semula-persempadanan-bagi-negeri

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是时候推行100令吉无限次使用的隆雪区公共交通月票

(2018年1月11日)行动党政治教育局副主任兼沙登区国会议员王建民博士的媒体声明

是时候推行100令吉无限次使用的隆雪区公共交通月票

在2017年10月,我曾撰文提起尽管政府近年来投入了数十亿令吉,但轻快铁,捷运和电动火车的乘客数量仍出现下滑的迹象。[1] 交通部最近公布的2017年第三季度的铁路统计数据[2]也印证了我的看法和忧虑,也就是2017年7月和8月轻快铁和捷运的乘客人数因票价减半而有所提高只是暂时的现象。

在去年8月份票价减半的时期,每日高峰期间搭乘双溪毛糯-加影捷运路线的乘客曾达到135,112人。但优惠期结束后,每日乘客量就骤减至103,345人,远低于15,0000人的目标。同样的,格拉纳再也和安邦轻快铁的每日乘客量在8月份分别上升至262,606和195,536人。一旦优惠结束后,每日乘客量就分别下降至219,568和157,533 人。事实上,轻快铁9月份的乘客量甚至比3月份的乘客人数(格拉纳再也和安邦轻快铁分别为238,602和169,057人)还低。 (请参阅下图1和表1)

表1: 根据20171月至9,格拉纳再也和安邦轻快铁(LRT),捷运(MRT)和吉隆坡单轨(KL Monorail)的每日乘客量

来源:交通部的铁路统计数据

图1: 根据2017年1月至9月,格拉纳再也和安邦轻快铁(LRT),捷运(MRT)和吉隆坡单轨(KL Monorail)的每日乘客量

Type of Service

务类

JAN FEB MAC APRIL MEI JUN JULAI OGOS SEPT
LALUAN KELANA JAYA 格拉再也             211,913             220,418             238,602             223,057             223,869             212,253             231,159             262,606             219,568
LALUAN AMPANG 安邦             151,459             155,140             169,057             158,500             160,816             154,485             157,242             196,536             157,533
LALUAN MRT SBK捷运              23,471              12,532              13,786              12,927              13,057              12,288              62,344             135,112             103,345
KL MONORAIL 吉隆坡单轨              56,172              54,359              57,140              53,488              48,291              44,430              42,253              43,441              34,656

来源:交通部的铁路统计数据

轻快铁和捷运的每日乘客量的下降清楚地表明,这些乘客对价格都特别敏感。因此,为了提升公共交通的普及率,我认为政府有必要推行实惠的公共交通月票,以方便乘客无限次使用轻快铁,捷运,单轨火车和快捷通巴士的服务。快捷通巴士(Rapid KL)之前曾为轻快铁服务推行150令吉的月票价,但此优惠在2015年12月随着LRT涨票价期间就被取消了。

希望联盟在替代预算案中建议推行100令吉无限次乘搭的公共交通月票。我相信随着这个月票的推行,公共交通的使用量,特别是轻快铁,捷运及快捷通巴士将大幅提高,甚至可能会超越2017年8月票价减免期间的每日乘客量的目标 。

[1] http://ongkianming.com/2017/10/05/media-statement-najib-must-explain-the-lack-of-increase-in-ridership-on-the-rail-system-in-the-klang-valley-despite-billions-spent-on-the-lrt-extension-the-mrt-and-the-ktm-komuter-double-tracking-proj/

[2] http://www.mot.gov.my/en/Pages/statistik-rel.aspx?RootFolder=%2Fen%2FStatistik%20Rel%2F2017%203%20-%20SUKU%20III%202017&FolderCTID=0x012000B98E763A4B4D9E45BF0A89A3AD9C0C63&View={06807F3D-F85A-41AF-A229-BF053BC42139}

Time to introduce a RM100 public transportation pass in the Klang Valley

Media Statement by Dr. Ong Kian Ming, Member of Parliament for Serdang and Assistant National Director for Political Education, on the 11th of January 2018

Time to introduce a RM100 public transportation pass in the Klang Valley

In October 2017, I had written about the lack of an increase in the ridership of the LRT, MRT and KTM Komuter despite the billions of Ringgit of investment poured into new projects.[1] The recently released Quarter 3 2017 rail statistics[2] by the Ministry of Transportation confirmed my fears that the LRT and MRT ridership spike in July and August 2017 due to the half-price fares were only temporary.

The Sungai Buloh-Kajang MRT line reached a peak daily ridership of 135,112 in the month of August when fares were 50%. But once the fare discount period was over, the daily ridership dropped down to 103,345, which is significantly less than the target of 150,000. Similarly, the daily ridership for the Kelana Jaya and Ampang LRT lines spiked up to 262,606 and 195,536 respectively in the month of August but once the discount period was over, the daily ridership numbers fell down to 219,568 and 157,533 for the Kelana Jaya and Ampang LRT lines respectively. In fact, the LRT ridership numbers for the month of September is even lower than that for March 2017 which averaged 238,602 and 169,057 for the Kelana Jaya and Ampang LRT lines respectively. (See Figure 1 and Table 1 below)

Figure 1: Daily ridership by month (January to September 2017) for the Kelana Jaya and Ampang LRT lines, the SBK MRT line and the KL Monorail

Source: Ministry of Transportation, Rail Statistics

Figure 1: Daily ridership by month (January to September 2017) for the Kelana Jaya and Ampang LRT lines, the SBK MRT line and the KL Monorail

Type of Service JAN FEB MAC APRIL MEI JUN JULAI OGOS SEPT
LALUAN KELANA JAYA             211,913             220,418             238,602             223,057             223,869             212,253             231,159             262,606             219,568
LALUAN AMPANG             151,459             155,140             169,057             158,500             160,816             154,485             157,242             196,536             157,533
LALUAN MRT SBK              23,471              12,532              13,786              12,927              13,057              12,288              62,344             135,112             103,345
KL MONORAIL              56,172              54,359              57,140              53,488              48,291              44,430              42,253              43,441              34,656

Source: Ministry of Transportation, Rail Statistics

The drop in the daily ridership on the LRT and MRT clearly shows that passengers are price sensitive. This is why it is necessary to introduce an affordable monthly public transportation pass to allow passengers to have unlimited rides on the LRT, MRT, Monorail and Rapid KL buses as a way to increase public transportation usage. Rapid used to have an RM150 monthly travel pass for the LRT but this was eliminated as part of the LRT fare hike in Dec 2015.

Pakatan Harapan has proposed in our alternative budget to introduce a RM100 unlimited travel monthly public transportation pass. I am confident that with the introduction of this pass, public transportation usage especially on the LRT, MRT and Rapid buses will increase significantly, perhaps even beyond the daily ridership figures set in August 2017 when the LRT and MRT fares were reduced by 50%.

[1] http://ongkianming.com/2017/10/05/media-statement-najib-must-explain-the-lack-of-increase-in-ridership-on-the-rail-system-in-the-klang-valley-despite-billions-spent-on-the-lrt-extension-the-mrt-and-the-ktm-komuter-double-tracking-proj/

[2] http://www.mot.gov.my/en/Pages/statistik-rel.aspx?RootFolder=%2Fen%2FStatistik%20Rel%2F2017%203%20-%20SUKU%20III%202017&FolderCTID=0x012000B98E763A4B4D9E45BF0A89A3AD9C0C63&View={06807F3D-F85A-41AF-A229-BF053BC42139}

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马来西亚在2022年或2023年将有可能面临预算赤字危机,而非零赤字

(2018年1月9日)行动党政治教育局副主任兼沙登区国会议员王建民博士的媒体声明

马来西亚2022年或2023将有可能面临预算赤字危机,而非零赤字

第二财政部长拿督斯里佐哈里最近承认,马来西亚到了2020年将无法实现平衡预算的目标。[1] 这番言论对于长期观察马来西亚经济预算的人士而言并无太大惊喜。尽管首相纳吉多次承诺,马来西亚将在2020年达到这个平衡预算的目标。

马来西亚的债息费用从2009年的142亿令吉增加至2018年的308亿令吉。债息费用所占预算的比例从2009年的9.1%也增加至2018年预计的13.2%。(请参阅下图1和2)

1: 2009年至2011年,中央政府根据各项目所产生的营运开销,包括债息费

2: 2016年至2018年,中央政府根据各项目所产生的营运开销,包括债息费

由于中央政府的债务成长远高于收入的成长,因此债息费用占预算的比例有所提高也不会令任何人感到意外。从2009年(纳吉在2008年9月成为财政部长)到2017年,中央政府的债务成长了89.7%,每年成长率为11.2%;反之,同一时期的中央收入的成长率为37.5%,每年成长率为4.7%(参阅表1和图3)。

1:2009年至2017年,中央债务对比中央收入的成长比率

3: 20092017年,中央债务对比中央收入的成长曲线

更令人担忧的是,由财政部100%所拥有的特殊用途工具所衍生的债息费用也由政府买单,但最终却被“隐藏”在政府预算案里。例如,根据2018年的财政预算案中,战略性行业的开销2017年的12.86亿令吉增加至2018年的37.48亿令吉。这包括支付给负责为捷运工程和泛婆罗洲高速大道融资的基建基金公司(Dana Infra)11亿令吉 。第二 财政部长在2017年11月29日也通过国会书面回复来核实这一点(附录1)。

此外,“其他款项”(Lain-Lain Bayaran Balik)也2017年的15.28亿令吉增加至2018年的42.36亿令吉。这笔款项的最大用途是为了私人融资计划(PFI)用途,总额为39.71亿令吉(参阅附录2)。

PFI实际上是由财政部100%拥有的特殊用途工具,如已累积近260亿[2]令吉债务的PFI建筑私人有限公司和发行100亿令吉债劵的BLT建筑私人有限公司。这些债劵是为政府支付建设警察宿舍的年度“租金”费用来进行融资。[3]

如果我们都将这些预算表外的债息费用都拿来加总的话(2018年约为50亿令吉),我国的总债息费用将是350亿令吉或刚达政府行政所规定的债息费用占总预算的15%。(参阅下图4)。

4: 2018年经济报告所给予债息费的定义 (第84页)

随着捷运2号线,3号线,轻快铁3号线和泛婆罗洲高速大道等项目的陆续推行,由财政部100%所拥有的特殊用途工具(SPV)所发行的债务总额也会继续增加,我们可以预计(隐藏和非隐藏式)总债息费用在未来十年将继续加速提高。中央政府2016年担保1873.2亿令吉的债务提高至2017年9月的2268.8亿令吉的债务,于此可见一斑。[4]

实际上,我并不反对所有为人民带来长期利益的发展开销。但是,通过将这些开销的债息费用“隐藏”在这些特殊用途工具之下,我们无意间默许其他部门(如首相署)所造成的浪费和腐败现象持续发生下去。对人民最不利的局面是,我们开始通过大砍高等教育机构和公立医院的拨款,以有能力负担和支付这些被“隐藏”的债息费用。

如果这种趋势继续演进的话,我认为即使到了2022年或者2023年,政府也不可能实现平衡赤字。事实上,随着我们的财政状况有下滑的迹象,因此我们的赤字危机更有可能进一步地恶化。

附录1:支付给2018战略领域单位的费用(37.48亿令吉)

附录2:其他偿还费用 42.36亿令吉)

[1] https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/01/05/fiscal-space-needed-to-balance-govt-finances-by-2022-or-2023/

[2] http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/putrajaya-confirms-pembinaan-pfi-debt-pile-near-rm27b

[3] https://www.marc.com.my/index.php/marc-rating-announcements/512-marc-affirms-its-aaais-rating-on-aman-sukuk-berhad-s-rm10-0-billion-islamic-mtn-programme-30102015

[4] http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/malaysias-spiralling-debt-burden

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