• 回应陆路公共交通委员会所公布于巴生河流域的铁路乘搭量的声明

    (2017年10月10日)沙登区国会议员王建民博士的媒体声明

    回应陆路公共交通委员会所公布于巴生河流域的铁路乘搭量的声明

    我要感谢陆路公共交通委员会(SPAD)在2017年10月9日再一份声明所公布的2016年和2017年的铁路乘客数量的资料。[1] 据我所知,作为掌管大部分公共交通服务的SPAD没有在其网站上公布铁路或巴士的乘客数量。因此,这一次的资料披露可说是一个值得令人鼓舞的举动。

    我仍支持早前在2017年10月5日所表示的说法,即在双溪毛儒-加影捷运1号线(MRT-SBK)全面开通前,捷运的乘客量已经下降。[2] 图表1显示了2015年第2季度至2017年第2季度的乘客人数变化(在MRT-SBK路线全面启动前)。这些统计资料都来自每季度都会发布铁路乘客数据的交通部的官方网站 。[3] 从图表1,我们会发现到即使包含了部分启动的MRT-SBK路线服务后,每天的乘客量从2015年第2季度的635,901人次下降至2017年第2季度的562,923人次,下降幅度高达72,977人次或11.5%。事实上,在这段时间内,所有铁路线(不仅是KTM火车)的乘客量都下降了。

    图表1: 2015年第2季度至2017年第2季度的铁路乘客人数

    Type of Service Q2 2015 Q2 2017 Change % Change
    KELANA JAYA 228,763 217,383 (11,380) -5.0%
    AMPANG 175,713 156,248 (19,464) -11.1%
    KL MONORAIL 67,479 48,202 (19,277) -28.6%
    KLIA EKPRESS 9,472 6,071 (3,401) -35.9%
    KLIA TRANSIT 18,518 17,419 (1,099) -5.9%
    MRT SBK 12,622 12,622 NA
    KTM KOMUTER 135,956 104,978 (30,978) -22.8%
    TOTAL 635,901 562,923 (72,977) -11.5%

    Source: Ministry of Transportation (http://www.mot.gov.my/en/resources/rail-statistic)

    我选择2015年第2季度来开始分析,以便能有效地评估于2015年6月所启动的双威快捷巴士系统(Sunway-BRT) 和2016年6月启动的轻快铁延伸路线对乘客量所产生的影响。如上图1所示,尽管推出了分别耗资6.34亿令吉的Sunway-BRT(链接至LRT系统)和80亿令吉的LRT延伸路线(在Kelana Jaya和Ampang路线上增加了24个新站),这两条路线的乘客量实际仍分别下降了5%和11.1%!

    我也注意到,由财政部100%拥有和经营单轨铁路的国家基建公司(Prasarana)涉及了与SCOMI的合约纠纷,导致了最终五辆4个车厢的单轨火车被取消。作为运营商的Prasarana及监管机构的SPAD都必需承担这起事件的部分责任。[4] 真正的使用者其实并不关心任何合约纠纷。 只要服务不够方便或舒适,市民是不会使用这些公共交通服务,而单轨乘客量的下降正好反映了这一点。

    SPAD公布了比较2016年 和2017年(1月至8月)的每日乘客量的数据。在还没有包含捷运线路的统计下,日均乘客人数再这段期间增加了12%。如果包含 MRT的全线操作,日均乘客人数则增加了30%。由于某些原因,SPAD并没有包括2015年的日均乘客人数。我在图表2中列出了2015年的日均乘客数量来进行分析。[5] 当我们观察从2015年至2017年的日均乘客数量的话,在不包含MRT完整路线的启动,整体乘搭量从2015年的629,258人次提高至2017年的638605(1月至8月),增幅仅为1.5%!

    图表2:2015年至2017年的日均铁路乘客数量的话 (1月至8月)

    Type of Service 2015 2016 2017 (Jan to August) 2016 to 2017 % Change (2016 to 2017) 2015 to 2017 % Change

    (2015 to 2017)

    KELANA JAYA LINE 225,054 215,855 271,250 55,395 26% 46,196 20.5%
    AMPANG LINE 172,081 161,729 184,931 23,202 14% 12,850 7.5%
    KL MONORAIL 68,679 60,083 53,337 (6,746) -11% (15,342) -22.3%
    KLIA EKPRESS 9,509 6,612 6,593 (19) 0% (2,916) -30.7%
    KLIA TRANSIT 17,799 17,719 19,420 1,701 10% 1,621 9.1%
    KTM Komuter 136,137 108,023 103,074 (4,949) -5% (33,063) -24.3%
    Total (Without MRT) 629,258 570,021 638,605 68,584 12% 9,347 1.5%
    MRT Full Line Opening 101,024
    Total (With MRT) 739,629 169,608 30% 17.5%

    Source: SPAD, MOT

    此外,我们必须考虑到SPAD所公布的乘客数量是包括2017年7月至8月的数据。这个期间的LRT,Monorail及MRT的票价都提供了50%的折扣(2017年7月17日至8月31日)。[6] 再来,2017年8月所举行的东运会比赛也必然会增加轻快铁的乘客流量(特别是前往武吉加里尔站)。 即使有了这些外部因素,如50%折扣和东运会比赛,捷运全线的每日乘客量也仅有101,024人次,远低于15万人次的目标,也不达40万的乘客承载量。[7] SPAD过去也坦承2015年底的票价上涨导致了2016年乘客量下降了9%。因此,过去的50%的折扣优惠结束后,LRT和MRT的乘客人数也会面临同样的下滑吗?就让我们来拭目以待吧。

    我希望大家不会误会我为何要特意强调这些数据。实际上,我不是为了批评而批评SPAD或Prasarana。我非常支持推广公共交通工具的使用,甚至希望有更多的民众会善用它们。如果乘客数量的预计目标没有达成,那么我们需要去探讨问题背后的原因。例如,问题是否出现在链接最后一里路的交通工具吗? 或者问题是在LRT或MRT上花费的额外时间所造成的不方便? 捷运站的停车费用太高吗?这些都是SPAD未来必须深入探讨的课题。

    最后,我呼吁SPAD能每月都向外公布巴生谷河流域的公共交通和铁路乘客的每日乘客人数的数据,以便向雪兰莪和吉隆坡使用各种铁路服务的民众展示更大的透明度。如今,随着政府大力推动开放“大数据”政策,我们要求SPAD公布一些最基本的数据如每日乘客数量,相信也不会太过分吧。

    王建民博士
    沙登区国会议员

    [1] http://www.spad.gov.my/media-centre/media-releases/2017/governments-initiative-public-transport-results-increased-ridership

    [2] http://ongkianming.com/2017/10/05/media-statement-najib-must-explain-the-lack-of-increase-in-ridership-on-the-rail-system-in-the-klang-valley-despite-billions-spent-on-the-lrt-extension-the-mrt-and-the-ktm-komuter-double-tracking-proj/

    [3] http://www.mot.gov.my/en/resources/rail-statistic

    [4] http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/05/31/prasarana-and-scomi-now-clash-over-the-third-supplemental-contract/

    [5] Daily ridership figures were obtained from the Ministry of Transportation (http://www.mot.gov.my/en/resources/yearly-statistic)

    [6] http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2017/07/17/najib-mrt-lrt-and-monorail-fares-to-be-50-pct-off-until-merdeka/

    [7] http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/the-cheat-sheet-for-klang-valleys-newest-ride-the-mrt-sbk#Ct5sTSYz88V9Umtl.97

  • Responding to SPAD’s statement on rail ridership in the Klang Valley

    Media Statement by Dr. Ong Kian Ming, MP for Serdang, on the 10th of October 2017

    Responding to SPAD’s statement on rail ridership in the Klang Valley

    I would like to thank the Land Public Transport Commission or the Suruhanjaya Pengangkutan Awam Darat (SPAD) for their statement issued on the 9th of October 2017 which provides figures for rail ridership in 2016 and 2017.[1] As far as I can tell, SPAD does not publish rail or bus ridership figures on its website, despite being the authority regulating most of public transportation so this disclosure is a welcome beginning.

    I stand by my earlier statement issued on the 5th of October 2017 which said that rail ridership has decreased prior to the opening of the full Sungai Buloh-Kajang MRT Line 1 (MRT-SBK).[2] Table 1 below shows the changes in ridership from Q2 2015 to Q2 2017 (which is prior to the opening of the full MRT-SBK line). These statistics were obtained from the Ministry of Transportation’s (MoT) website which publishes quarterly rail statistics.[3] From Table 1, we can see that even with the inclusion of the partially opened MRT-SBK line, daily ridership fell from 635,901 in Q2 2015 to 562,923 in Q2 2017, a fall of 72,977 or 11.5%. In fact, ridership on ALL rail lines (not just the KTM Komuter) declined during this time period.

    Table 1: Daily ridership of Rail Services in the Klang Valley, Q2 2015 to Q2 2017

    Type of Service Q2 2015 Q2 2017 Change % Change
    KELANA JAYA 228,763 217,383 (11,380) -5.0%
    AMPANG 175,713 156,248 (19,464) -11.1%
    KL MONORAIL 67,479 48,202 (19,277) -28.6%
    KLIA EKPRESS 9,472 6,071 (3,401) -35.9%
    KLIA TRANSIT 18,518 17,419 (1,099) -5.9%
    MRT SBK 12,622 12,622 NA
    KTM KOMUTER 135,956 104,978 (30,978) -22.8%
    TOTAL 635,901 562,923 (72,977) -11.5%

    Source: Ministry of Transportation (http://www.mot.gov.my/en/resources/rail-statistic)

    I choose Q2 2015 as the starting point to evaluate the effect of the opening of the Sunway BRT in June 2015 and the opening of the LRT extension in June 2016 on the LRT ridership. As Figure 1 above shows, despite the launch of the RM634 million Sunway-BRT (which connects to the LRT system) and the RM8 billion LRT extension (which added 24 new LRT stations to the Kelana Jaya and Ampang lines), ridership on the KJ and Ampang lines actually fell by 5% and 11.1% respectively!

    While I take note of the fact that Prasarana, the 100% Ministry of Finance Incorporate owned company, which operates the Monorail line, is involved in a contract dispute with SCOMI which has led to the removal of five 4-car units on the Monorail system, this is part of the responsibility of the operator (Prasarana) as well as the regulator (SPAD).[4] Members of the public who use the rail system don’t care about any contract disputes. If the service is not convenient or comfortable, they will not use it and this is reflected in the decline in ridership of the monorail.

    The figures released by SPAD compares the daily ridership in 2016 with the daily ridership from January to August 2017. The daily ridership without the MRT line has increased by 12% from 2016 to 2017 (Jan to August) and by 30% if we include the MRT full line operations. For some reason, SPAD did not include the 2015 daily ridership figures. I include the 2015 daily ridership figures in Table 2 below for comparison.[5] When we compare the 2015 daily ridership to the 2017 daily ridership, without the MRT Full Line, the increase is a mere 1.5% from 629,258 in 2015 to 638,605 in 2017 (Jan to August)!

    Table 2: Daily ridership of Rail Services in the Klang Valley, 2015 to 2017 (Jan to August):

    Type of Service 2015 2016 2017 (Jan to August) 2016 to 2017 % Change (2016 to 2017) 2015 to 2017 % Change

    (2015 to 2017)

    KELANA JAYA LINE 225,054 215,855 271,250 55,395 26% 46,196 20.5%
    AMPANG LINE 172,081 161,729 184,931 23,202 14% 12,850 7.5%
    KL MONORAIL 68,679 60,083 53,337 (6,746) -11% (15,342) -22.3%
    KLIA EKPRESS 9,509 6,612 6,593 (19) 0% (2,916) -30.7%
    KLIA TRANSIT 17,799 17,719 19,420 1,701 10% 1,621 9.1%
    KTM Komuter 136,137 108,023 103,074 (4,949) -5% (33,063) -24.3%
    Total (Without MRT) 629,258 570,021 638,605 68,584 12% 9,347 1.5%
    MRT Full Line Opening 101,024
    Total (With MRT) 739,629 169,608 30% 17.5%

    Source: SPAD, MOT

    Furthermore, we have to take into account that the rail ridership figures released by SPAD includes the July-August 2017 figures where the LRT, Monorail and MRT fares were slashed by 50% (from July 17th to August 31st 2017).[6] August 2017 was also when the SEA games were being held which would have increased traffic on the LRT lines (especially to the Bukit Jalil station). But even with the novelty factor, the 50% discount rate and the SEA games, the daily ridership of the MRT Full Line was only 101,024 which is below the target of 150,000 and far below the capacity of 400,000.[7] Even SPAD acknowledges that the fare increase at the end of 2015 resulted in a 9% drop in ridership in 2016. Would the ridership of the LRT and MRT also experience a similar decline once the discount period is over? Only time will tell.

    I hope that people won’t misunderstand the reasons why I am highlighting these statistics. It is not to criticize SPAD or Prasarana for the sake of criticizing. I am strongly in support of public transportation and want more people to use them. If the projected increase in rail ridership is not happening, then we need to know the underlying causes for this. For example, is it the last mile connectivity via feeder buses which is the issue here? Or the inconvenience in terms of additional time spent on the LRT and / or MRT? Or the high cost of parking at the park and ride facilities? These are the issues which SPAD and the public transport operators must look into.

    Finally, I call upon SPAD to publish the daily ridership figures for the bus and rail ridership in the Klang Valley on a monthly basis so that there is greater transparency on the number of people using the various rail services in Selangor and Kuala Lumpur. In this day and age when the government is pushing for more ‘big data’ initiatives, surely it would not be too much to ask for SPAD to publish something as basic as daily ridership statistics?

    Dr. Ong Kian Ming
    Member of Parliament for Serdang

    [1] http://www.spad.gov.my/media-centre/media-releases/2017/governments-initiative-public-transport-results-increased-ridership

    [2] http://ongkianming.com/2017/10/05/media-statement-najib-must-explain-the-lack-of-increase-in-ridership-on-the-rail-system-in-the-klang-valley-despite-billions-spent-on-the-lrt-extension-the-mrt-and-the-ktm-komuter-double-tracking-proj/

    [3] http://www.mot.gov.my/en/resources/rail-statistic

    [4] http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/05/31/prasarana-and-scomi-now-clash-over-the-third-supplemental-contract/

    [5] Daily ridership figures were obtained from the Ministry of Transportation (http://www.mot.gov.my/en/resources/yearly-statistic)

    [6] http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2017/07/17/najib-mrt-lrt-and-monorail-fares-to-be-50-pct-off-until-merdeka/

    [7] http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/the-cheat-sheet-for-klang-valleys-newest-ride-the-mrt-sbk#Ct5sTSYz88V9Umtl.97

  • Najib must explain the lack of increase in ridership on the rail system in the Klang Valley despite billions spent on the LRT extension, the MRT and the KTM Komuter Double Tracking projects

    Media Statement by Dr. Ong Kian Ming, MP for Serdang, on the 5th of October 2017

    Najib must explain the lack of increase in ridership on the rail system in the Klang Valley despite billions spent on the LRT extension, the MRT and the KTM Komuter Double Tracking projects

    There are some who wants to present the title of ‘Father of Public Transportation Modernization’ to Prime Minister Najib Razak because of the billions of RM poured into the one and only BRT line in Sunway, LRT extension, the new MRT line and the KTM Komuter Klang Valley Double Tracking (KVDT) upgrade.[1] But the reality is that despite the billions of RM poured into these large public transportation rail projects, the overall ridership for the LRT, the monorail and the KTM Komuter has not increased significantly over the past 2 years. As the figures below will show, Najib’s administration should be ashamed that they have spent so much money on these projects with so little benefit to the rakyat.


    Source: Ministry of Transportation[2]

    Figure 1 above shows the average daily ridership figures for the Kelana Jaya LRT line, the Ampang LRT line, the KL Monorail and the KTM Komuter on a quarterly basis from Q1 2014 to Q2 2017. According to these figures, which are provided by the Ministry of Transportation, the daily ridership of the Kelana Jaya LRT line, the Ampang LRT line, the KTM Komuter and the KL Monorail in Q2 2017 are less than the daily ridership figures for Q2 2015, just before the launch of the Sunway BRT. For example, the daily ridership of the popular Kelana Jaya LRT was 228,763 in Q2 2015 but had dropped to 217,383 in Q2 2017 despite the opening of the Sunway BRT in 2015, the LRT extension in 2016 and Phase 1 of the Sungai Buloh-Kajang MRT line in 2017.

    The RM634 million Sunway BRT was launched in June 2015[3]. The daily ridership figures were 11,295 and 12,372 in June and July 2015 respectively when the service was free. The ridership figure then plunged to 4,616 in August 2015 when fares were introduced which cost, on average, RM1 per km for a 5.4km BRT route.[4] The high fares charged were even critiqued by the Sunway chairman, Tan Sri Jeffrey Cheah.[5]

    The RM8 billion LRT Extension was launched on the 30th of June 2016 (end of Q2 2016) and it connects the Kelana Jaya and the Ampang LRT lines.[6] While the opening of the LRT extension seems to have boosted the daily ridership figure for the Kelana Jaya line from 210,739 in Q2 2016 to 220,714 in Q3 2016, the daily ridership figure for the Ampang line actually dropped from 166,984 in Q2 2016 to 159,213 in Q3 2016.

    The opening of Phase 1 of the MRT Line 1 from Sungai Buloh to Semantan also did not increase the traffic for the KTM Komuter which connects to the MRT Line 1 in Sungai Buloh. In fact, the KTM Komuter daily ridership of 106,337 in Q3 2016 (before the opening of Phase 1 of the MRT Line 1) was higher than the daily ridership of 104,978 in Q2 2017 (approximately 6 months after the opening of Phase 1 of the MRT line).

    As for the KL Monorail, its daily ridership has experienced a steady decline from a high of 71,623 in Q4 2014 to a low of 48,202 in Q2 2017.

    Figure 2 above shows the daily ridership of the KLIA Transit, the KLIA Express and Phase 1 of the MRT-SBK Line 1 which was opened in December 2016.

    For the KLIA Transit, the daily ridership of 17,419 in Q2 2017 is far lower than the 20,129 daily ridership in Q4 2014. As for the KLIA Express, the daily ridership of 6,071 in Q2 2017 is also lower than the daily ridership peak of 9,847 in Q3 2015. The daily ridership of MRT Line 1 dropped from 16,368 in Q1 2017 to 12,622 in Q2 2017 once the novelty of taking the MRT wore off and the free one-month trial period was over.

    What explains the decrease in overall ridership despite the opening of the Sunway BRT, the LRT extension and the MRT Line 1?

    One of the main explanations is that the cost of taking these trains is not necessarily cheaper than driving. For example, as this letter writer in the Star shared, it costs him RM9 for a trip from Puchong to Sunway via the Sunway BRT or RM18 for a return trip. Throw in the parking at the LRT station (RM4) and fuel costs, this writer estimated that it would cost him RM25 per day to take the LRT compared to RM10 to drive (including toll costs and free parking at his office).[7]

    Daily ridership on both LRT lines, the monorail and the KTM Komuter dropped significantly from Q4 2015 to Q1 2016 because of a significant fare hike for the LRT as well as the KTM Komuter. Daily ridership figures have yet to recover from this steep fare hike despite the subsequent opening of the LRT extension in the middle of 2016.

    When the Q3 2017 daily ridership figures are released later this year, I expect there to be a significant increase in the passenger numbers for the LRT and MRT because of the half price ‘offer’ during the SEA games leading up to Merdeka on the 31st of August 2017 and also the opening of the full MRT Line 1 from Sungai Buloh all the way to Kajang. We should take these ridership figures with a pinch of salt. A more realistic gauge of daily ridership would be the Q4 2017 figures when the half price discounts have been taken away and the people can more accurately estimate to see if it is worthwhile for them to take public rail transportation instead of using their own vehicles. As we have seen in the examples above, ridership figures decrease significantly once the ‘free’ or ‘discount’ period is over.

    The other reasons why the public are reluctant to use public rail transportation have to do with timing and reliability. For example, it takes someone approximately 30 minutes to drive from Puchong to Sunway but it would take about an hour for the same trip using the LRT and the BRT. Issues of reliability continue to plague the KTM Komuter despite the RM1.4 billion allocated for the Klang Valley Double Track (KVDT) upgrade project. Derailment and delays decreases the reliability of the KTM Komuter which also discourages potential passengers from abandoning their cars in favour of rail transportation.[8]

    It is all fine and good when the Prime Minister together with his cabinet ministers and other VIPs take the BRT, the LRT and the MRT when they are first launched with great fanfare and publicity. But after the VIPs are gone and after the ‘free’ or ‘discounted’ fare periods have expired, we do not see passengers voting with their feet by switching to public rail transportation. To really be a ‘game changer’, PM Najib must make public rail transportation affordable (for example, by introducing a monthly train and bus pass for let’s say, RM100), reliable (avoid delays and disruptions) and accessible (solving the last mile connectivity problem). PM Najib only deserves the title of ‘Father of Public Transportation Modernization’ if and only if these issues are resolved. After all, spending money on these projects is the easy part. Getting people to take the trains and buses is another story altogether.

    Dr. Ong Kian Ming
    Member of Parliament for Serdang

    [1] http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/mp-najib-is-father-of-public-transport-modernisation#cYma94wm6QXVy4ZW.97

    [2] http://www.mot.gov.my/en/resources/rail-statistic

    [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRT_Sunway_Line

    [4] http://penanginstitute.org/v3/files/research_papers/Penang-Institute-Sunway-BRT-Writeup-JonathanFong-OKM-Feb2016vFinal.pdf

    [5] http://www.thestar.com.my/metro/community/2016/04/29/steep-fares-keep-passengers-away-lukewarm-response-to-brt-service-even-during-peak-hours/

    [6] http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2016/06/30/new-lrt-line-from-putra-heights-begins-today/

    [7] http://www.thestar.com.my/opinion/letters/2016/08/23/why-the-lrt-isnt-worth-the-switch/

    [8] http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2017/08/22/dap-wants-transport-minister-to-answer-for-frequent-ktm-delays/

  • “雪兰莪之战”最终章

    (2017年9月29日)沙登区国会议员王建民博士的媒体声明

    “雪兰莪之战”最终章

    在本篇第14届大选“雪兰莪之战”的最终章里,我分析了下列雪兰莪州选举的三种预测结果和可能性。

    首先,我假设伊斯兰党(及其选举联盟成员)将在雪兰莪州的所有56个州议席上竞选。在伊斯兰党在第13届大选里竞选的席位中,我预计在下一届大选中,马来选民对伊斯兰党的支持水平将分别下滑15%,20%和25%。这意味着如果伊斯兰党在第13届大选中获得了40%的马来选票,那在第1,2和3的预测中,其马来选民的支持将分别下滑25%,20%和15%。同时,我也预测伊斯兰党的非马来人票仓中,80%的华裔选民,60%印裔选民和50%其他选民将弃投伊党。

    针对行动党和公正党在第13届大选所竞选的议席中,我通过第1,2和3的可能性中预测伊党将分别赢得25%,20%和15%的马来选票。另外,我预测非马来选民的支持率约为 1%(可被忽略不计)。

    上述预测是否务实呢?我们别忘记伊党在大港补选中的马来选民支持率从40%下滑了10%至30%。有鉴于团结党加入希望联盟,希盟的领导层进一步地巩固,公正党与伊斯兰党划清界线,因此我们对伊斯兰党的马来选民支持率将在第14届大选进一步下滑预测并非不切实际的。若马来海啸如实发生,便会应验第3种预测结果,我们甚至会看到许多伊斯兰党和巫统的支持者在第14届大选中转投希望联盟。

    在大港补选中,非马来人对伊斯兰党的支持率可谓是微不足道的。自从该补选后,伊斯兰党已经无法继续说服非马来选民在第14届大选中支持自己。

    有很多迹象显示马来选民对国阵的支持率将在第14届大选中下滑。城乡选民普遍上都能感受到消费税生活成本上涨所产生的影响和。自从第13届大选,纳吉所获得的支持率大不如从前。 由敦马哈迪和慕尤丁领导的土团党,将允许希望联盟渗入过去在野党无法触及的巫统据点。

    现在的问题不在于马来选民对国阵的支持率会下滑多少。在第1种预测情景,我预测国阵将减少5%的马来选票。这并非不切实际的数据,因为雪兰莪州的选民更加“务实”(“雪兰莪之战”第1集曾触及这个课题)。因此,这些选民除了考虑消费税课题外,也会关注如1MDB和FELDA之类的施政课题。在这个情景下,非马来选民对国阵的支持率则维持不变。

    在第2种情景中,我预测马来选民对国阵的支持率下滑幅度更大,高达8%;非马来选民的支持下滑近3%。。在第3种情景,我就附和刘镇东同事所提出的“马来海啸”预测,即马来选民对国阵的支持下滑10%(非马来选民下滑5%)。

    上述3种情景所产生的预测结果分别是如何呢? 请参阅图表2。

    在第1种情景中,希望联盟预计将赢得56个议席中的35席。尽管这不如民联在第13届大选所赢得的44个议席,但仍然足够让希盟在雪兰莪州执政。

    在第2种情景中,有如迷你马来海啸,希望联盟预计将赢得43席,与民联在第13届大选的成绩相差一个席位。

    在第3种情景中,就如马来海啸来袭,希望联盟预计将赢得50个州议席。

    我想从上述的分析强调3个观点。

    首先,上述预测清楚地表明,即使在最悲观的预测情景下(站在希望联盟的角度来观察),伊斯兰党也无法阻止希望联盟在雪兰莪州执政。这是第1种情景。

    其次,上述预测显示,在第14届大选之后,伊斯兰党在雪兰莪州将无法占有任何席位。原因很简单。伊斯兰党将失去大部分非马来选民的支持,尤其对拥有多元种族社会的雪兰莪很重要,因为非马来人占全体选民的49%。单凭马来选票,伊斯兰党独自无法赢得任何州议席。

    第三,在发生马来海啸的情况下,希望联盟拥有最佳的优势来收割政治红利。 希望联盟可以务实地竞选,针对联邦政府不受欢迎的政策而大力提出替代方案。伊斯兰党则无法以同样的策略来竞选。此外,伊斯兰党甚至无法成为雪兰莪州选举的造王者,因为它不可能赢得任何席位。通过运用对的战略,希望联盟可以赢得比第13届大选更多的议席,应验最乐观的第3种预测情景。

    王建民博士
    沙登区国会议员

  • Battle for Selangor Part 3

    Media Statement by Dr. Ong Kian Ming, MP for Serdang, on the 29th of September, 2017

    Battle for Selangor Part 3

    In this concluding part on the “Battle for Selangor” in GE14, I analyse the projected outcomes for the state seats in Selangor under three possible scenarios which are summarized in Table 1 below.

    Table 1: Projected Change Malay, Chinese, Indian and Other support in GE14 (compared to GE13)

    I assume that PAS (and its coalition partners) will contest in ALL 56 state seats in Selangor. In the seats which PAS contested in for GE13, I project that the level of Malay support for PAS will drop by 15%, 20% and 25% respectively in GE14. This means that if PAS obtained 40% of the Malay vote in GE13, its share of Malay support will drop by 25%, 20% and 15% respectively under Scenarios 1, 2 and 3. I also project that PAS’ non-Malay support will take a tremendous dive – by 80% among Chinese voters, by 60% among Indian voters and by 50% among Other voters.

    In the seats contested by the DAP and PKR in GE13, I project that PAS will win 25%, 20% and 15% of Malay support in Scenarios 1, 2 and 3. I project a negligible level of non-Malay support (at around 1%) for PAS in GE14.

    Are these realistic projections? Keep in mind that PAS’ Malay support in the Sungai Besar by-election dropped by 10% from 40% to 30%. Given the inclusion of BERSATU in Pakatan Harapan (PH), the strengthening of the PH leadership and the breaking off of ties between PAS and PKR, it is not unrealistic to think that Malay support for PAS will drop further in GE14. And in the case of a Malay tsunami, which is what is projected in Scenario 3, it is not unrealistic to see many PAS and even UMNO supporters throwing their support behind PH in GE14.

    The non-Malay support for PAS in the Sungai Besar by-election was negligible. There is nothing which PAS has done since this by-election which can convince non-Malay voters to keep supporting PAS in GE14.

    There are many indications that overall Malay support for the BN will fall in GE14. The impact of the GST and the increase in the cost of living have been felt by rural and urban voters. Support for Najib among the Malays is far lower than what it was in GE13. BERSATU, led by Tun Dr. Mahathir and Tan Sri Muhyiddin, have allowed PH to venture into UMNO strongholds that were previously closed to the opposition coalition.

    The question now is not if the Malay support for the BN will drop but by how much. In Scenario 1, I project a loss of 5% Malay support for the BN, a not unrealistic figure given that voters in Selangor are more ‘sophisticated’ (a point I argued in Part 1 of the “Battle for Selangor”) and hence, more aware of not just the impact of the GST but also other issues to do with good governance such as 1MDB and FELDA. The Malay support for the BN remains unchanged compared to GE13 in Scenario 1.

    In Scenario 2, I project a slightly larger decrease in the Malay support for the BN – a fall of 8% – and a smaller drop in non-Malay support of 3%. And in Scenario 3, which my colleague Liew Chin Tong has termed a ‘Malay tsunami’, the Malay support for the BN falls by 10% (with a drop of 5% support among non-Malays).

    What are the projected outcomes under Scenarios 1, 2 and 3? The results are summarized in Table 2 below.

    Table 2: Projected BN and PH state seats won under Scenarios 1, 2 and 3

    In Scenario 1, PH is projected to win 35 out of 56 state seats. Even though this is less than the 44 state seats Pakatan Rakyat won in GE13, it is still sufficient for PH to form the next state government in Selangor.

    In Scenario 2, which is a mini-Malay tsunami, PH is projected to win 43 state seats, one seat short of what PR achieved in GE13.

    In Scenario 3, which is the Malay tsunami scenario, PH is projected to win 50 state seats.

    I want to highlight three points from this analysis.

    Firstly, the projections clearly show that PAS cannot prevent PH from forming the next government in Selangor, even under the most pessimistic scenario (from PH’s perspective), which is Scenario 1.

    Secondly, the projections show that PAS will be left with no seats after GE14 in Selangor. The reason is simple. PAS will be left with almost no non-Malay support which is important in a multi-racial state like Selangor where non-Malays comprise 49% of all voters. And it cannot win enough Malay support on its own to win any state seats.

    Thirdly, PH is in the best position to capture the political dividends in the event of a Malay tsunami. PH can campaign credibly to change the policies of the federal government which are unpopular with the rakyat. PAS cannot campaign in the same manner. PAS cannot even say that it will be the kingmaker in Selangor because it is not likely to win even a single seat. With a strategic campaign, PH can reap the benefits of a possible Scenario 3 by winning more state seats than even the 2013 general elections in GE14.

    Dr. Ong Kian Ming
    Member of Parliament for Serdang

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