• The battle for Selangor in GE14 (Part 1)

    Media Statement by Dr. Ong Kian Ming, MP for Serdang, on the 26th of September, 2017

    The battle for Selangor in GE14 (Part 1)

    It is no secret that the Barisan Nasional (BN) is desperate to win back Selangor at all costs in the upcoming general election. The reasons are obvious. Selangor is the richest state in Malaysia by economic output. Many big-ticket infrastructure projects such as the East Coast Rail Line (ECRL), the High Speed Rail (HSR), the LRT and MRT projects, water projects and new toll roads, require the approval of the Selangor state government. Having a well-governed Pakatan Harapan (PH) state government on the doorstep of Putrajaya is also a headache for the BN because voters can compare and contrast the performance of the Selangor state government with other BN state governments as well as the Federal Government.

    What are the chances of the BN recapturing Selangor in GE14? The answer lies partly with the outcome of the expected three corner fights which will occur between the BN, PH and PAS. Before I go into the analysis of possible outcomes in three corner fights, it is important to understand the nature of voters in Selangor. Voters in Selangor are perhaps the most ‘sophisticated’ in the whole country and because of this, their voting patterns are also the most volatile. Let me illustrate by using the general election results from 1990 onwards.

    Figure 1 below shows the level of BN support in states which have been won or are held by the opposition namely Kedah, Kelantan, Terengganu, Penang, Perak and Selangor from 1990 to 2013.

    Figure 1: BN support in Kedah, Kelantan, Terengganu, Penang, Perak and Selangor (GE1990 to GE2013)

    BN support in Selangor is the most volatile among all these frontline states. For example, the BN support in Selangor (highlighted in bold) increased from 54.8% to 72.4%, a massive spike, due to the high economic growth enjoyed by the country during the ‘East Asian’ miracle years from the early 1990s until just before the Asian economic crisis in 1997. Support for the BN in Selangor fell to 54.8% during the 1999 Reformasi elections. It then increased to 62.8% in 2004 during the Pak Lah ‘tsunami’ before falling to 43.4% in the 2008 BN backlash elections and falling to 38.4% in the 2013 GE.

    Figure 2 below shows the changes in the level of BN support in these key stations from 1990 to 2013 with the figures for Selangor highlighted in bold. Figure 2 shows more clearly the level of volatility which Selangor voters exhibit from one election to another. From 1990 to 1995, BN support increased by 17.7%, the highest among all key states. BN support fell by 17.7% from 1995 to 1999, also the highest among all key states. From 2004 to 2008, BN support fell by 19.4%, the highest among all key states, which led to a change in government in Selangor.

    Figure 2: Change in BN support in key states (GE1990 to GE2013)

    Does the volatility shown by Selangor voters means that the BN can hope to win back Selangor based solely on its performance and leadership? This would be wishful thinking on the part of BN leaders. One of the main reasons why Selangor voters exhibit such volatility is that they are the fastest to reward good performance and also the fastest to punish bad performance. They rewarded the BN in 1995 for delivering economic growth and prosperity and they swung against the BN in 1999 because of the economic and political crisis during Reformasi (albeit not by enough for the BN to lose this state then). They swung against the BN in record numbers in 2008 because of dissatisfaction against Pak Lah due to undelivered election promises. There is nothing in BN’s track record and leadership which indicates that voters in Selangor will reward it in the next general election especially when the best the BN can do is to parade out a line-up of 3 ex-Menteri Besars, one of whom was convicted of corruption and another who was found carrying a suitcase full of cash to Australia.

    The track record of the Selangor state government, while not perfect, has been positively felt by the voters in the state through many of the welfare programs under the ‘Inisiatif Peduli Rakyat’ umbrella including free medical cards for low income families and individuals and free buses in each of the districts / municipalities in the state. Investments and jobs continue to pour into Selangor. The high popularity of Selangor Menteri Besar, Azmin Ali, stands in stark contrast to that of Prime Minister Najib Razak.

    A large number of the more than 2 million voters in Selangor are not originally from Selangor. Many of them move to Selangor because of better job and educational opportunities. As such, many of them are not attached to any political party i.e. they are not ‘hard-core’ BN or opposition supporters. Many of these voters also have better access to information including social and online media. They are not ‘brainwashed’ by mainstream media. Many of these voters also have higher income and education profiles compared to other states. And the number of newly registered voters is the highest in Selangor compared to other states.

    All these reasons explain why most Selangor voters will vote practically i.e. by rewarding the party or coalition which promises to give them what they want namely better governance that will keep the streets clean, deliver better welfare programs, provide properly paved roads and improve the quality of life. These are also reasons why it is very possible for Pakatan Harapan (PH) to retain most of the seats which were won by Pakatan Rakyat in GE13 even in the case of three corner fights.

    I will provide the evidence in Part 2 of my statement.

    Dr. Ong Kian Ming
    Member of Parliament for Serdang

  • 青年体育部长凯里是否曾批准举办近期临时被取消的2017马来西亚马拉松赛?




    令人毫不意外的,马来西亚参赛者都感到沮丧并涌入马来西亚马拉松比赛的面子书专页来宣泄不满。截稿为止,该面子书贴文已经收集到371条大部分都是负面的评论。[2] 实际上,马来西亚赛事最后一分钟被取消已不是新鲜事。类似的事件之前已发生过很多次,这也是为何我在2017年8月1日的国会上透过他的副部长沙拉瓦南向青体部长凯里转交一分关于马来西亚跑步爱好者的问卷调查结果。[3] 当然,我们可以理解的是, 凯里部长一直都忙于筹备第29届吉隆坡东运会和将从2017年9月17日开始进行的残奥会赛事。但这件事情也将矛头指向旅游部和青体部,因为它们都被列为马来西亚马拉松比赛的联办单位(其他单位还包括吉隆坡市议会和Wisdom Sports(M)Sdn Bhd)。

    第一,如果身为举办单位的Wisdom Sports无法实现吸引足够前来竞跑的中国参赛者的承诺,旅游部是否有任何应急计划?部长应该要了解,即使是拥有高达四万名参赛者的赛事,如马来西亚渣打马拉松比赛(SCKLM)和槟城国际马拉松比赛(PBIM),外国参赛者都远低于5000人,更何况是这个原定于只有2万人参加的马拉松赛事。[4] 此外,当局也没有考虑到已报名参赛的马来西亚人福利,其中很多已经提早预订了火车,巴士和飞机票,从其他州属前往吉隆坡参与这次的赛事?即使中国参赛者人数不达标,当局是否无法吸引足够的企业赞助来协助筹备这次赛事的费用呢?总而言之,部长宣布取消的解释是无法被接受的,同时凸显部长并不关心马来西亚参赛者和国内游客的福利。

    第二,青年和体育部长应该在批准这起赛事方面给公众一个交代。 1997年体育发展法令第33条文规定:“未经部长事先的书面批准,任何在马来西亚所举办的国际体育赛事都不被视为最终决定。”


    此外,马来西亚马拉松比赛还有暴露一些细节上的疏忽,再次显示举办单位并不遵守国际体育标准(1997年体育发展法案第34条文所规定),包括没有公布42公里,21公里和10公里比赛的路线图,奖金和其他奖品信息,和一开始就错误标签拥有国际田径联合协会(IAAF)的认证等等。[5] 纵观所述,凯里部长在签名批准筹备这起赛事前,是否有意识到马来西亚马拉松的所有上述潜在的缺点?



    [1] http://www.thesundaily.my/node/479618?

    [2] https://www.facebook.com/notes/malaysia-marathon/cancellation-of-malaysia-marathon-2017/276215422875144/

    [3] http://ongkianming.com/2017/08/01/media-statement-the-ministry-of-youth-and-sports-needs-to-do-more-to-improve-the-quality-of-running-events-in-malaysia/

    [4] http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2017/03/01/marathon-targeting-20000-entries-one-belt-one-road-run-at-dataran-merdeka-expected-to-generate-rm40m/

    [5] The claim of the IAAF certification was later removed when it was questioned by members of the running community.

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